Last week’s market action was downright ugly. I’ve reviewed my basic impressions of market fundamentals and technicals and observe the following:
- Economic and corporate indicators continue to point to modest economic growth. Leading economic indicators rose again in August. Prices are undervalued.
- Markets discount a Greece default on its debt obligations. Concern of “contagion” is a major cause of U.S. equity declines. However, Greece appears dedicated to not letting this happen. If it does, markets will be chaotic for a spell and likely create a further buying opportunity.
- Consumer sentiment is very poor. While this could induce the first ever confidence led recession, odds are it is setting the stage for capitulation and a rebound.
- A recession is priced into the equity markets yet the odds of a renewed recession are only 25%-30%. This is bullish.
- Market trends are decidedly down, but selling during a market decline has not proven to be a winning strategy. Markets always eventually rebound and they can turn very fast, often when things look bleakest.
- The best course of action is to maintain liquidity for spending purposes and rebalance portfolios, buying equities to take advantage of the market pullback.